Hurricane Season Update: Active Season Likely, But Long-Term Planning is Key

By Anna Neely, Head of R&D and Cat Response

The 2024 hurricane season is upon us, and forecasts paint a picture of a potentially very active period measured by both count and strength of storms. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric that considers storm intensity, duration, and frequency, is predicted to be extremely active – a rarity. This suggests a season with more frequent, intense, and long-lasting storms. Hurricane Beryl exemplifies this – an early-season storm with impressive characteristics, but its timing doesn’t necessarily predict future hurricane behavior. In fact, its wind speed increase, noteworthy for this time of year, falls within historical averages.

However, it’s important to understand that neither ACE nor storm count directly translate to insured losses. While there is correlation between storm activity and total losses, it’s far from perfect – and not predictive. Studies show a stronger correlation between ACE and losses compared to storm counts, but there’s still a significant range.

Considering this, forecasters like NOAA predict the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Other forecasts include ranges on ACE – a budding area of prediction. Regardless of the forecasts we read, none make predictions of insured losses.

The bottom line? We have been preparing for an active season. Right now, we are keeping our focus on long-term forecasts from reliable sources like NOAA and staying informed with official advisories throughout the season. This approach, not single storms in isolation, will give you the most accurate picture of the season’s development.