Hurricane Season Update: Below Average in the Atlantic

By Justin Roth, Associate Director, Catastrophe Analytics R&D

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season has been notably below average, despite numerous agencies predicting a hyper-active season. What has caused this meteorological shift and how will this impact the reinsurance community?

Patterns off the African Coast

This is a clear example of the interconnectedness of global weather systems.

The formation of tropical cyclones typically relies on tropical waves originating off the coast of Africa. However, this year, the weather patterns over Africa have been unusual. Normally, African Easterly Waves travel from the Guinea Highlands in West Africa into the tropical Atlantic, where they intensify during late August and September. This year, these waves have shifted northward, and instead have moved into the Sahara Desert. Consequently, several regions of the Sahara have experienced record-breaking rainfall, with records dating back to 1940. This northward shift is a significant factor contributing to the current lack of tropical activity in the Atlantic.

The unusual weather patterns over Africa have significantly impacted the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

What does this mean for reinsurance?

Overall a below-average hurricane season is a positive development for the U.S. (re)insurance industry, as fewer tropical cyclones will likely result in fewer claims and better financial outcomes.

This is not to say that the Atlantic Basin won’t be more active in September or October. We can still expect tropical waves in the coming weeks, though likely fewer than average.

We should, of course, remain watchful. It only takes one event to cause billions of dollars in loss as we saw with Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm of the 1992 Hurricane Season that made landfall in Florida on August 24th.

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